Indonesia has the potential to elevate its climate commitment substantially by enhancing blue carbon ecosystems, promoting the development of offshore renewable energy, and fostering the adoption of electrification and low-carbon fuels in domestic shipping.
A study conducted by the Australia-based think tank, Climateworks Centre, highlights the pivotal role of ocean-based climate initiatives in Indonesia’s journey towards attaining net-zero emissions by 2060 or earlier. Given that the ocean holds 20 times more carbon than the atmosphere and terrestrial plants combined, and serves as a sink for a third of human-generated carbon dioxide and 93% of anthropogenic heat, prioritizing these measures could significantly contribute to the nation’s climate goals.
According to the summary report titled “Sea of Opportunity: Utilizing Ocean-Based Mitigation to Support Indonesia’s Climate Goals,” incorporating ocean-based mitigation strategies into Indonesia’s upcoming second nationally determined contribution (NDC) scheduled for 2025 could serve as a bridge between the country’s envisioned transition scenario and the low-carbon scenario aligning with the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. The report’s analysis indicates a potential closure of the gap by 19% in 2030 and 49% in 2050.
This report holds significance for Indonesian provinces participating in the BIMP-EAGA cooperation agreement—Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua—due to their abundant ocean resources. These resources present untapped opportunities that can contribute to helping the country not only meet but also exceed its climate ambitions.
Potential Impact
The report indicates that ocean-based mitigation measures could yield the following outcomes:
- Integrating seagrass into Indonesia’s NDC monitoring and reporting frameworks and establishing protection targets would diminish their degradation and destruction. This has the potential to offset 17 to 60 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) annually by 2030. Additionally, this complements the projected 32 to 41 MtCO2e of emissions mitigation per year for mangroves by 2030. Regarding seaweed farming, Indonesia could potentially mitigate 0.15 to 0.22 MtCO2e per year if it attains 30% of the projected 1.5 million hectares of seaweed cultivation potential by 2030.
- The deployment of a combination of four offshore energy technologies—wave, tidal, offshore wind, and ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC)—has the potential to offset 0.83 MtCO2e per year by 2030, with a swift acceleration extending to 2050.
- Achieving the decarbonization of the domestic maritime transport and shipping sector could lead to a mitigation of 2.1–2.8 MtCO2e per year by 2030.
Blue carbon ecosystems, which refer to the carbon captured by ocean and coastal ecosystems, play a globally significant role in Indonesia. The country possesses 17% of the world’s mangrove and seagrass forests, as highlighted by a 2015 study mentioned in the report.
The report identifies mitigation actions that encompass addressing deforestation and degradation of mangroves, preventing the conversion of mangrove forests to other land uses, enhancing seagrass protection, and expanding seaweed farming. Additionally, it recommends establishing emissions mitigation targets, along with protection and restoration strategies for mangroves and seagrass, to ensure the sustainability of these ecosystems through 2030.
Beyond environmental benefits, safeguarding blue ecosystems can contribute to reducing inequalities among vulnerable groups. For example, sustainable seaweed farming has the potential to enhance household livelihoods and empower women. The report emphasizes that by aligning on-the-ground actions with the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), Indonesia can promote sustainable development, ensure the well-being of its people, and protect the future of its diverse and invaluable marine resources.
Highlighting the significance of Kalimantan, which experienced a deforestation rate of 19% between 2009 and 2019, the report underscores the importance of mangroves in this region. It also identifies North Kalimantan, Riau, North Maluku, and Central Java as provinces with the lowest percentage of mangroves falling within protected areas.
Offshore renewable energy presents a promising avenue for Indonesia to access diverse clean energy sources, including offshore wind farms and renewable ocean energy encompassing wave energy, tidal energy, and Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC).
The report advocates for the integration of offshore renewable energy into Indonesia’s energy portfolio by 2050, emphasizing the need for the country to cultivate a robust offshore energy industry through substantial pilot projects.
Although offshore wind is not currently a central component of the national energy transformation plan, it represents an immediate and potent opportunity for transitioning to clean energy. Indonesia can tap into the potential of low-capacity offshore wind generation in the offshore regions of its 26 provinces, particularly benefiting high-demand provinces like South Sulawesi, South Sumatra, Lampung, Bali, and East, West, and Central Java. Notably, coastal areas in West Java, Maluku, Papua, and South Sulawesi, characterized by higher wind speeds reaching 7 to 8 meters per second, are deemed suitable for deploying high-capacity turbines.
Specifically, provinces such as Maluku, North Sulawesi, East Nusa Tenggara, North Maluku, Papua, West Papua, West Sulawesi, South East Sulawesi, and Central Sulawesi boast over 5,500 megawatts of OTEC capacity. The Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), a comprehensive measure encompassing lifetime costs including installation, operation, and maintenance, ranges from $0.15 to $0.17 per kilowatt-hour. The regions with the highest potential for emissions reduction, approximately 7.84 MtCO2e by 2030, are Maluku, North Sulawesi, and East Nusa Tenggara.
Maritime Transport the report highlights Indonesia’s distinctive opportunity to lead the shift towards a low-emission trajectory in the shipping industry. It suggests aligning the decarbonization objectives for domestic shipping and maritime passenger transport with the strategy outlined by the International Maritime Organization. The report advocates for a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions within domestic maritime passenger transport by transitioning 5% of the fleet to alternative fuel sources by 2030 and committing to the electrification of high-impact routes. Additionally, it recommends identifying routes for deploying low net production and low-emission alternative fuels, aiming for at least a 20% (with a striving target of 30%) reduction by 2030, and further increasing to at least 70% (with a striving target of 80%) by 2040 compared to 2008 levels, ultimately working towards achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
Recommendations
The report puts forth suggestions for policies and measures that foster a conducive environment for ocean-based mitigation. These encompass:
- The implementation of robust and transparent carbon monitoring and reporting systems.
- The initiation of a specific marine planning process inclusive of all maritime sectors and users, with a focus on considering the co-benefits and social implications of planning decisions.
- The strategic establishment of marine protected areas, giving priority to mangrove and seagrass ecosystems.
- The adoption of energy-efficient practices and the utilization of low-carbon fuels in domestic shipping.
- Investment in feasibility studies, encompassing grid and technical readiness, economic production opportunities, alignment with industrial expansion, and energy equity analysis, to advance the deployment of offshore renewable energy.
